MARKET

BACKGROUND

Copper demand & Ev Market

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Green copper demand to average 13% annual growth over next 10 years.1

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Up to 3.5x the amount of copper is needed for electric cars compared to conventional cars and between 11x – 16x for buses.

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The roughly 25 million tonnes per year that is baseline global consumption is going to be challenged, and quickly. Wood Mackenzie believes by 2030, over 20 million EV charging points will be deployed globally, consuming over 250% more copper than in 2019.

MARKET DATA

Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2030, copper demand will grow nearly 600% to 5.4mn tonnes. In North America, the EV market will have a value of $2.7bn by 2021 and $18.6bn by 2030. And by 2040, passenger EVs alone will consume more than 3.7mn tonnes of copper annually.

The global battery metals market size was valued at $11.3 billion in 2019, and is projected to reach $20.5 billion by 2027.

THE MARKET

DOMESTIC BATTERY PRODUCTION EXPANSION

Supply chain disruptions and government recognition of the strategic importance of battery metals have fast-tracked the development of domestic battery production.  Domestically sourced Rare Earth Elements (REEs) are important to the industry, but copper is important not only to battery production, but to the entire electrification of the economy.

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U.S BATTERY MANUFACTURING CAPACITY

THE MARKET

electric vehicle demand

Growth is being driven by consumer demand, environmental necessity and government incentives.

The 8 million electric vehicles on the road internationally in 2019 are expected to increase to 50 million by 2025 and almost 140 million vehicles by 2030. 1

EV sales are expected to reach almost 14 million vehicles in 2025 and 25 million vehicles in 2030. 1

Lead by electric buses and light trucks, annual commercial EV sales are expected to top 3 million by 2025 and triple to nearly 9 million by 2030. Annual commercial vehicle sales are projected to reach 6.4 million by 2050, while global stock will swell to 54 million. 3

  1. International Energy Agency, Global EV Outlook 2020   
  2. Bloomberg NEF via Federal Consortium For Advanced Batteries (FCAB)
  3. Wood Mackenzie, Feb. 2021  www.woodmac.com/press-releases/700-million-electric-vehicles-will-be-on-the-roads-by-2050/

* Including plug-in hybrids and light vehicles, excluding commercial vehicles.  Sources: ACEA, CAAM, InsideEVs, KAIDA

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THE MARKET

electrIC VEHICLE GROWTH

The shift away from Internal Combustion (IC) to EV and Hybrids is massive with copper and other battery metals central to the outcome.

The battery electric vehicle (BEV) market is expected to surpass $300 billion USD by 2027, as reported in a research study by Global Market Insights Inc. 

In North America, GM has committed to be all-electric by 2035, Chrysler by 2028, Ford has committed to 40% Evs by 2030, VW targets 1.5 million vehicles built by 2025 and Toyota plans to sell 3.5 million units of 30 EV models by 2030. (All figures from manufacturer’s websites). 

According to Fortune Business Insights, the global electric vehicle market size was $287.36 billion in 2021, projected to grow to $1,318.22 billion USD in 2028 at a CAGR of 24.3%.

BloombergNEF’s (BNEF) latest report estimating that electric vehicles represent a $7 trillion global market opportunity between today and 2030 and a $46 trillion opportunity between now and 2050, under their Economic Transition Scenario.

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THE MARKET

BEYOND ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Many metals, but especially copper, are critical to greening the economy through electrification well beyond electric vehicles. 

COPPER IS CRITICAL TO:

TRANSMISSION LINES

According to the Edison Electric Institute, the U.S. electric transmission network consists of more than 600,000 circuit miles of lines, 240,000 of which are considered high-voltage lines (230 Kilovolts and greater). Copper is a key material component of transmission, which consists of structural frames, conductor lines, cables, transformers, circuit breakers, switches and substations. 

SOLAR

Solar power generation requires 5.5 tons of copper per MW 2

WIND TURBINES

A 3 megawatt (MW) wind turbine contains up to 4.7 TONS OF COPPER, and often remote locations require extensive cabling to connect to the grid, especially offshore wind farms.

THERE ISN’T ENOUGH COPPER PRODUCTION

The copper industry needs to spend upwards of $100 billion to counter an estimated annual shortfall of 4.7 million metric tons by 2030 as the clean power and transport sectors expand exponentially, according to estimates from CRU Group. The potential shortfall could reach 10 million tons if no new mines get built, according to commodities trader Trafigura Group.3

Global refined copper production is expected to reach 27.61 million tonnes in 2025, growing at a CAGR of 2.94%, for the time period 2021-2025

- ResearchAndMarkets.com 
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THE MARKET

THE MARKET

SUPPORT IS HUGE

The Biden administration’s recent infrastructure bill, with billions of dollars in government funding, relies heavily on copper-intensive industries. 1

$39 Billion

to modernize public transit, with an emphasis on zero-emissions vehicles

$65 Billion

investment in improving the nation’s broadband infrastructure

$17 Billion

in port infrastructure and $25 billion in airports to, among other things, promote electrification and other low-carbon technologies

$7.5 Billion

for zero- and low-emission buses and ferries, aiming to deliver thousands of electric school buses to districts across the country

$7.5 Billion

would go to building a nationwide network of plugin electric vehicle chargers

$65 Billion

to rebuild the electric grid including building thousands of miles of new power lines and expanding renewable energy

TOTAL: $201 Billion in spending, all demanding copper

THE OPPORTUNITY

Copper: Key to the battery metals market

Copper is the most widely used metal in energy storage, generation and transmission infrastructure.

It is also the next most used metal after aluminum and steel in the construction, telecommunications, transportation, and automobile manufacturing sectors.

This broad demand has created an estimated annual shortfall of 4.7 million metric tons by 2030 as the clean power and transport sectors expand exponentially, according to estimates from CRU Group.

The potential shortfall could reach 10 million tons if no new mines get built, according to commodities trader Trafigura Group.1

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